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Photovoltaic power generation status and prospects
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  The development status and prospect of China's photovoltaic power generation industry

  From the perspective of development, photovoltaic has natural advantages.However, the development of photovoltaic industry has been faced with the problem of relatively high power generation costs and strong dependence on policies.The supporting policies for the photovoltaic industry in various countries include fixed price acquisition system, preferential tax policies, etc., or green card system to issue subsidies through market bidding, renewable energy quota system, etc.

    (1) photovoltaic policies of major countries:

   (2) rapid development of the photovoltaic industry worldwide: driven by the governments of various countries, the scale of solar energy development and utilization has been rapidly expanded in recent years, technological progress and industrial upgrading have been accelerated, and the cost has been significantly reduced. It has become an important field of global energy transformation.By the end of 2017, the total installed photovoltaic capacity in the world had exceeded 400GW.In 2017, about 102GW of new global pv installations were installed, an increase of about 40% over the same period in 2016.From 2007 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of global photovoltaic power generation exceeded 40%, making it the fastest growing energy variety in the world.

 From the perspective of trend, China contributed 53GW of the newly installed equipment in 2017, an increase of 56% compared with the newly installed equipment in 2016.By the end of 2017, China's cumulative installed capacity had reached 130GW, ranking first in the world in terms of both new and accumulated installed capacity.In terms of the European market, since 2011, the overall growth rate of solar pv installation in Europe has gradually slowed down. Since 2014, the overall growth rate has basically stabilized within 10%, and the overall market demand is weak.The eu added only 6.7GW of new large ground pv installations in 2016, down 33 percent from 2015.If residential rooftop pv installation is taken into account, the installed pv capacity in 2016 is also 21% lower than that in 2015.Thanks to the cost reduction brought by technology upgrading, European pv also showed signs of recovery. In 2017, the installed pv capacity increased by 8.8GW, up by 31.3% year on year.The new installed pv capacity in the us reached 12.5gw in 2017, down about 16% from the same year in 2016.Although the number of newly installed machines decreased in 2017 compared with that in 2016, the number of newly installed machines increased significantly compared with that before 2015.In terms of the Asian market, as one of the bric countries with rapid global economic growth, India has opened its energy market to international capital in an all-round way in order to support the economic and people's livelihood development of power facilities.At the same time, to cope with climate change, prime minister narendra modi has proposed a plan to install 200GW of renewable energy by 2022, including 100GW of photovoltaic (pv). In 2017, the new installed pv capacity in India will be 9GW, with broad space for future growth.In comparison, the growth momentum of the photovoltaic market in Japan is insufficient. The installed capacity in 2017 is only 6.8GW, and the annual installed capacity has declined for two consecutive years.  

  (3) China's photovoltaic industry has been growing rapidly since 2013: China's solar hotovoltaic industry started a little later than that of western countries, with solar cell manufacturing as the main industry in the early stage. The United States and the European Union are important export markets of China's photovoltaic products.Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the economy of developed countries in Europe and the United States has been greatly affected, resulting in a decline in employment rate and an increasing momentum of trade protectionism.In this context, China's many export industries, including photovoltaic industry, have encountered more and more serious trade frictions.In 2012 and 2013, the United States and the European Union took huge punitive measures against Chinese photovoltaic products, which had a huge negative impact on the development of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises at that time.In this context, a large number of enterprises with weak competitiveness quit the industry.Since 2013, with the joint efforts of the Chinese government and photovoltaic enterprises, China's photovoltaic industry has ushered in a turning point.With good supporting industry advantage, the human resources advantage, cost advantage, and vigorously support policy of the country, make full use of rise of the domestic pv market opportunities, through independent innovation and the introduction of digestion, absorption and innovation, the combination of photovoltaic industry in China has gradually formed with the characteristic of our country independent industrial technology system, and gradually become one of the few in our country with international competitive advantage strategic emerging industries.From the perspective of subdivision, China's battery production scale has been the world's largest for 11 consecutive years since 2007.In 2017, China's battery output was 68GW, an increase of about 36% compared with the same period in 2016, accounting for about 68% of the global battery output.Components, components of 2017, China's output reached 76 gw, year-on-year growth of around 43%, about 71% of global production, represented by the PERC technology of high efficiency solar cell technology drive the average conversion efficiency continue to improve, result in high efficiency solar cells was provided or expansion speed, high efficiency solar cell production line layout global trend is obvious. In terms of photovoltaic market, by the end of 2017, China's solar photovoltaic power generation cumulative grid-connected installation capacity has reached 130GW.Before 2012, China's domestic photovoltaic market has not been launched on a large scale, and the products are mainly exported.In 2013, the photovoltaic market exploded after relevant ministries and commissions issued documents to encourage it.Cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China from 2010 to 2017.At present, China's photovoltaic products continue to expand the international market, in the traditional European and American markets and emerging markets are dominant.Most of the key equipment of photovoltaic manufacturing in China has been localized and gradually implemented intelligent manufacturing, leading the world.China's 13th five-year plan for solar energy development puts forward that the implementation of solar industry upgrading plan "aims to promote the upgrading of solar energy industrialization technology and equipment in China, and promote the improvement of the localization level of raw and auxiliary materials, product manufacturing technology, production technology and production equipment of the whole industrial chain.Photovoltaic power generation focuses on supporting PERC technology, n-type single-crystal and other high-efficiency crystalline silicon cells, the industrialization of new thin-film batteries and the development of key equipment;"Solar thermal power generation focuses on breaking through key technologies such as high-efficiency high-capacity high-temperature heat storage and high-energy efficiency solar energy aggregation heat, and researching and developing solar thermal power generation system integration technology and key equipment with high reliability and allday power generation.The outlook for the solar cell manufacturing industry is expected to be sustainable, driven by policies and technology.

   (4) the photovoltaic power generation parity online trend is obvious, which will further accelerate the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry

With the progress of solar cell structure design, micro-nano laser precision processing and other technologies, the kilowatt-hour cost of photovoltaic power generation enters the decline channel, and it is expected to realize parity Internet access in the future.With the progress of photovoltaic power generation technology, industrial upgrading and rapid expansion of market scale, the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decline globally, with the cost of photovoltaic power generation reduced by about 60% from 2010 to 2015.With the continuous progress of photovoltaic technology, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is falling rapidly. The price of photovoltaic power generation will be reduced to the level of thermal power generation around 2020, and China is expected to realize parity Internet access.The realization of affordable Internet access is of landmark significance and will further accelerate the development speed of the photovoltaic industry.

  (5) the leader program leading the domestic photovoltaic enterprises improve efficiency: (1) "pacesetter plan" is introduced: "photovoltaic leader project" is China's national energy administration starting in 2015, a year of photovoltaic (pv) support special plan, "leader" plan through the construction of advanced photovoltaic technology demonstration bases, methods such as the implementation of new technology application demonstration projects, the goal is to promote advanced photovoltaic technology application and industrial upgrading, strengthen quality management of photovoltaic products and engineering. (2) the significance of the "leader plan" : the enterprises selected in the "leader plan" can get the following policy support: 1) some national power projects will give priority to the "leader" advanced technology products.2) the government will provide market support for the "pv leader" project in key equipment and technology.



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