• Human survival and development are closely related to energy. All economic activities and survival of human beings depend on the supply of energy, and the exploitation and utilization of other resources also depend on energy.2018 "world energy blue book" by the Chinese academy of social sciences graduate school of international energy security research center organization experts and scholars write, analyses of current situation of the development of the world's energy industry, market and future development trend, interpretation of the world economic situation, national energy policy and other factors on the world energy situation produced the profound influence.
  

   In 2017, the global economy will continue to improve on the basis of the recovery in 2016.    Developed economies will enjoy sound growth momentum, emerging economies and developing countries will see their economies stabilize and rebound, and global trade and investment will continue to recover.Looking ahead to 2018, the international monetary fund forecast at the start of the year that the global economy would grow by a record 3.8 per cent, or the fastest pace in a decade.Driven by sound global economic fundamentals, the imbalance between global energy supply and demand has improved, and the prices of oil, natural gas and other commodities tend to recover.

 Affected by the recovery of crude oil demand, the international oil price fluctuates upward in 2017.Global oil demand in 2017 was higher than expected, effectively alleviating the impact of excess global inventories, shale oil and gas production increase in North America and failure of some oil producing countries to achieve production reduction as promised.U.S. WTI crude rose to nearly $60 a barrel at the end of the year from $52 a barrel at the start of the year.Since 2018, due to geopolitical influences such as the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement, the international oil price has continuously risen to 68 dollars per barrel by the end of May 2018.Against the backdrop of intensified global trade disputes and frictions and rising trade protectionism in 2018, the market's optimism about the economic growth of major countries and regions, including emerging economies such as China, has been affected.At the same time, the global economy is also faced with sluggish growth, high debt and financial risks and hidden dangers of excessive leverage.The continued rise in international oil prices has added to worries about the economic outlook.

 In 2017, the global natural gas market also deserves special attention, with both consumption and price of natural gas showing a trend of stabilization and recovery.Global gas consumption in 2017 was about 3.62 trillion cubic meters, up 2.2 percent from 1.8 percent in 2016 and back to the average level of the past decade.In 2017, global natural gas production will be about 3.7 trillion cubic meters, up 2.7%.Russia's gas production has grown particularly sharply.Russia's natural gas output in 2017 was 670 billion cubic meters, up 4.7 percent from 2016.At the same time, the global LNG trade continues to increase. In 2017, the global LNG liquefaction capacity increased to 353 million tons/year, an increase of 13.8% over 2016 and the highest growth rate since 2011.With the continuous production of new projects, Australia and the United States have seen the largest increase in LNG exports in the past two years, accounting for more than 70% of the increase in global LNG trade in 2017.In 2018, global gas market supply is expected to continue to ease.Global gas demand is expected to rise to 3.67 trillion cubic meters, up 1.7 percent from 2017.On the supply side, global natural gas production is expected to be 3.78 trillion cubic meters, up 2%, and the global LNG supply surplus will expand to 60 million to 80 million tons/year.Affected by the continuous easing of natural gas supply, the global LNG trade contract is developing towards the direction of "shorter" and "smaller", with shorter and shorter contract term and smaller and smaller annual contract quantity.In 2017, the average term of new contracts signed in the global LNG trade will be less than 8 years, and the annual contract transaction volume will be less than 1 million tons.Global gas trade is becoming more flexible and pricing is changing.

  In the context of the overall oversupply of global natural gas, China suffered a more serious "gas shortage" in the winter of 2017 than before, which forced us to think more deeply about the development and reform needs of the domestic natural gas industry.Although the "gas shortage" is affected by "unexpected events" such as the decrease of import gas from central Asia and the surge of domestic natural gas demand, we should also see that the so-called "unexpected" factors are actually constant, but they will show different external manifestations under different conditions.What needs to be discussed is that at present, the domestic oil and gas industry has different degrees of monopoly and segmentation in various links of the upper, middle and lower reaches, and the distortion of pricing mechanism is still serious, which to a large extent hinders the effective supply of domestic natural gas.The reflection on the problem of "gas shortage" in China has strengthened my thinking on the plan of RMB for natural gas.To promote the integration of natural gas market in northeast Asia, establish a regional natural gas trading center and realize the interconnection of infrastructure in the region should be an important path to solve the security of natural gas supply in China and even northeast Asia.

Throughout the global oil and gas market, with the implementation of the "energy independence" policy of the United States, the gradual reduction of its energy imports and the continuous expansion of its exports will have a profound impact on the global oil and gas supply and consumption pattern, which is of particular concern.In 2017, the "100-day plan" for china-us economic cooperation proposed that the us relax its control over natural gas exports to China.During US President Donald trump's visit to China in 2017, the us and China signed a record $253.5bn deal in bilateral economic and trade co-operation, with energy deals accounting for more than half.On May 19, 2018, China and the United States issued a joint statement on economic and trade consultations, pointing out that the two sides agreed to consciously increase the export of American agricultural products and energy.

This series of moves shows that the United States is gradually transforming from a net importer of natural gas to a net exporter. This huge change is profoundly changing the pattern of global energy production and trade. East Asia, including China, and even the whole Asia, will become the main wrestling field for natural gas exports of the United States and Russia.Countries including Russia and the Middle East have begun to redirect oil and gas exports and increase their exports to China.With the completion of the eastern route of china-russia natural gas pipeline, yamal and other large LNG projects in the future, China's natural gas imports from Russia will also increase significantly.Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to explode in the winter of 2018.With global natural gas production moving west and consumption moving east, China's natural gas import sources will become more diversified, which may create a rare historic opportunity for the implementation of the natural gas RMB program.

  For China, the further diversification of energy imports caused by the "energy independence" of the United States is very beneficial to achieve the security of natural gas supply and reduce the cost of natural gas utilization.Currently, China's LNG imports mainly come from Qatar and Australia, which together account for two-thirds.In the future, the import from the United States will make China's LNG import sources more diversified and compete with the export of LNG from Qatar, Australia, Indonesia and other countries to China. In addition, the fluctuation of gas price caused by international gas source competition will also provide more price options for importers.As a buyer, China may gain more flexibility and options in the light of the overall loose supply of LNG in the international market.

The growth of us oil and gas exports to China will also help balance bilateral trade.The U.S. trade deficit with China has been running for a long time and now accounts for about half of the overall U.S. trade deficit.The growth of LNG trade between China and the United States will improve the sino-us trade balance to some extent, which is expected to reduce the sino-us trade deficit by about $7 billion per year in the future.In addition to traditional oil and gas, the global development of renewable energy and nuclear energy is also worthy of attention.The solar power generation cost drops sharply and the policy support, promoted the photovoltaic market vigorous development.Renewable energy generation accounted for nearly two-thirds of the world's net new power capacity in 2016, with solar photovoltaic generation up 50 per cent, outstripping net growth in coal for the first time.Solar power capacity increased by more than 74 gigawatts, nearly half of which came from China.

 In terms of the global nuclear power market, the steady development of nuclear power in China has brought about a considerable increase in global nuclear power installed capacity.In Europe, nuclear capacity continues to decline as ageing plants are decommissioned and new investment is almost zero.It is predicted that China's nuclear power will grow at an average annual rate of 11 percent and 1,100 terawatt hours in the next 20 years, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the world's new nuclear power generation capacity and equivalent to the start of a new reactor every three months.